so an age-old expression is only the bookmaker wins that's the only way that
you could ever win with betting is by being the bookmaker so how could you be
the bookmaker and how does a bookmaker make money that's what we're gonna talk
about in this video please like and comment on the video below that will
allow me to produce better quality videos and more of them in the future if
you're interested in learning to trade successfully in sports then why not
visit the bet angel' Academy where we have more detailed videos so in order to
be a bookmaker you need to create a market you need to create a betting
market and the reason that you would do that is you're gonna lay odds into that
market that people will bet against they're gonna bet against you you create
the market you create the odds so let's take a really simple example of creating
a set of odds and for that what we're gonna do is use a coin so you know that
if I toss a coin barring any oddities the market of the coin rather in this
case but it is the market that were going to be talking about will actually
end up on heads 50% of the time and tails 50% of the time so we know that
there's a 50/50 chance that it's going to end up head or tails so how do we
price that in a set of odds but what we're going to do here is we're going to
use decimal odds because that's how the exchanges are priced the price that the
exchanges are priced in decimal odds so let's do that we know that there's a
50-50 chance of that coin being a heads or a tails so if we do 1 divided by 0.5
the 0.5 represents the 50-50 chance of being heads or tails what do we get if
we do that 1 divided by 0.5 equals 2 bingo there you go we have a market we
can say that the market for heads is 2 and the market for tails is 2 and the
way to assess how efficient and how good a market is from a betting perspective
is to do the opposite calculation so if you see a market price
that's - if you do 1/2 then it adds up to 0.5 so if we had a
market with two runners in it priced at odds of two on the exchange if we do 1/2
1/2 and add those two up it equals 1 or a 100% chance that either of those
selections is going to on is going to win this particular market so in the
case of our coin toss what's actually going to happen is we have heads priced
it's 2 and we have tails priced it - and if we add them both together that equals
100% and what that tells us is that there's a 100% chance of the coin being
heads or tails so in those terms there's no margin loss
to either side of the book the backers can back something with a 100% chance
and the layer in this case the bookmaker who's making the market in the book can
lay into the market at odds of to 100% he's not making any money either so
that's a perfect market there's no margin on either side now if we're a
bookmaker one of the things that we're going to do is we want to make money
from the backers so you are the backer so if we were looking at our coin toss
market if I go into the market and offer you odds of two on a heads or two on a
tail then basically I'm never going to make any money
because over the very very long term we would expect heads and tails to equal
out and I'm going to pay out a hundred percent of my money for a hundred
percent probability so in fact there's no advantage in me doing that however I
could say to you okay you know we've had five heads in a row therefore the chance
of a head is going to occur more frequently on the next toss I could
convince you that that is the case that's complete rubbish but I could
convince you that that is the case and now form only gonna offer you odds of
1.5 what happens if I offer you ads of 1.5 what am I actually offering you when
I'm offering odds of 1.5 well if we go and do that little bit of maths again we
do 1 divided by 1.5 it comes out as zero point six six six six six six six six
six recurring in other words what I'm saying more or less is that it's got a
67% occurring now that's nonsense because a
coin has a 50% chance of being a heads or a tails so if I a few odds of 1.5
there's absolutely no reason that you would choose to take those odds because
I'm offering you odds of 66% chance of something
occurring when it's only got a 50% chance it makes no sense it makes
absolutely no sense whatsoever but people do this all of the time in
betting markets people will back something despite the fact that the odds
just don't stack up so when you're backing in a market you want to get the
highest odds that you possibly can and when you're laying you want to get the
lowest possible odds to lay out because doing either of those two things is how
you make money in the long term on a betting market if we went into a market
we could back heads or tails at 1.5 we would lose money hand-over-fist stew the
person that's pricing that market however if we go into the market and
back heads or tails at odds of 3 then we could effectively buy the chance of the
coin being heads or tails for a 66% chance giving us 30 odd percent margin
if we back it at odds of 1.5 the margin goes in the other direction it's
actually the layer that has the margin within that particular market so when
you look at a market and you see the odds that's effectively telling you the
chance that something is likely to occur the layers want you to take the lowest
odds possible but as a backer you want to be able to take the highest odds
possible so let me show you a practical example of this and if you go into bet
angel fire up the bookmaking tab and I've chosen a market here at the weekend
Newcastle free Huddersfield you can see the market is super efficient here
it's priced at 100 point 1 that means if you're backing into this market you're
only losing 0.1% to the other side of the book traditionally a bookmaker but
in this market the layers on the other side of the market you can see it's
super super efficient there's almost no edge to a layer in this particular
market at these particular odds so if I was a bookmaker that would obviously be
completely unacceptable to me and the best way of creating margin is to change
the pricing so if I go over to the manual area here I can actually reduce
the on each one of these and you can see the
book percentage starts to rise so that's how I would make margin on this
particular game so what I did was I nipped out quickly and went to my local
bookmaker to find out what odds they were offering within this particular
market and according to the odds that I picked up on the coupon they were
offering four to five on Newcastle which is decimal odds of 1.8 on the draw they
were offering 12 to 5 which is decimal odds of three point four zero and on
Huddersfield they were offering 13 to five which is decimal odds of three
point six so can you see their slight difference between the margin that you
lose at the bookmaker and the amount that you lose on the exchange you can
see here that if you bet on the exchange you almost lose nothing to the other
side of the book because you've got a very competitive market but if we went
into our local bookmaker and placed a bet there you can see that
they're asking for nearly thirteen percent margin on this particular game
now they are actually given credit they are fairly competitive on Newcastle so
it's not a ridiculous proposition on Newcastle you suspect because you think
that probably the exchange is full of smart money and they probably have that
price right but it's undoubted that these prices will change as we head into
the weekend and the market adjusts for new information but you can see they're
pretty uncompetitive on the remaining selections and very uncompetitive when
we go for the away win so there's absolutely no way that you would back an
away win here but maybe you would be able to get a decent price of the
bookmaker if you were backing just Newcastle so yeah anyway there's a
practical example of what a book looks like on an exchange and how a bookmaker
prices their margin into the market
you
Không có nhận xét nào:
Đăng nhận xét