so you start out on your bet fair trading journey you want to find an edge
because they edge is what everybody is looking for and there are many ways of
finding an edge and edges occur in many different places and that's what I'm
going to talk about in this video please like and comment on the video below that
will allow me to produce better quality videos and more of them in the future so
yeah where do you find an edge well over many many years I found loads of edges
the interesting thing about them is you do tends to find them occurring in a
number of different places so the first thing you should have is a fairly open
mind as to where you expect these to occur because typically a ski the other
day where can you find an edge and I just replied to them the entire set of
the psychology of trading videos because in fact I think that you can describe a
lot of edges in that manner people do things that really don't make sense but
then the thing is they just endlessly repeat them which makes no sense either
so you find loads of little biases that occur all over the market in one form or
another and I've been amazed over the years just how many of them there are if
you lump them all together in one giant pot and put them together it sort of
says oh yeah the markets efficient but if you start deconstructing and pulling
out little bits of information then you suddenly begin to realize that perhaps
the market isn't quite as efficient as you would make as people would make you
believe so you tend to find that there are little gaps all over the place and
sometimes when you're looking at a trading stretchin you're trying to find
an edge it's better to focus on one particular niche doing one particular
thing than it is to try and do them all I'm incredibly rare I'm on the far right
of the bell curve in that I can turn my hands to many different things but
that's very rare for somebody to be able to do and also I've watched so many of
these down markets that I turn up at a market I look at her and go recognize
that but that's a learned skill I've had to go through the process of trading
hundreds of thousands of markets and then I can recognize straightaway now
the interesting thing is I can actually describe the variations that you see
within all of the markets and I can describe why that occurs and
how and on what scale because I've measured it all so not only can I look
at something but I can describe it beautifully in as much detail as you
like but the problem is that detail is really deep so if I start explaining and
breaking it down you started at a top level here and then there's another
layer and another layer and another layer and it takes hours to talk about
even just one particular market how it's likely to trade but the great thing is
you don't need to do that because say you focused on one particular niche
within a market so you sort of say right I'm only gonna trade this type of race
this is what I'm looking for and I'm going to do over this time period and in
this way and then you focus religiously on that you could have twenty or thirty
races but maybe only one or two of those will turn out to be the trade that you
want but nonetheless if you're really really focused on those you will find
them and it's the same at a football match you're looking for highest-scoring
football match a low-scoring football match all of these sort of things if you
focus in one particular area on one particular niche you will become very
very good at it and you don't have to trade hundreds of thousands of markets
you can just focus on that particular pigeon-holed niche and you'll find your
edge in there so I know there's somebody left a comment on a youtube video that a
saying tried this didn't work and I just sort of sometimes you really have to
stop yourself from replying in a certain way but I know somebody that actually
uses that strategy to make a living now he focuses on it relentlessly and
studies everything in such great depth and targets very very specific matches
and then goes in and does that strategy on those specific matches to the best of
his ability but of course if you apply it generally across the entire market
it's not going to work you have to focus on one particular niche and my ability
to read the markets isn't some sort of general I can describe it well but it
isn't some sort of just general trading rule it's because I started in exactly
the same place when I first started on racing knew nothing about it I looked at
a maiden and I thought it was a Disney Princess I had no idea it was a horse
that hadn't won a race before I didn't know but you know suddenly when I began
to spot the different race I was thinking well that's interesting
well you know this is interesting that's the case and it was a process of cutting
out losses for me so I adopted one generic bog-standard trading style
applied it on all of the markets and then it was like well I keep losing on
this race and I keep losing here and there and there and it's let put these
into a one little pot over here and figure out why I keep losing on these
particular races and then the other ones would go on the other side and it's like
what I'm good at those races and I'm terrible at those so let's stick with
these ones I'll increase my expectancy by focusing on those ones and abandoning
the ones that I just don't seem to do well on and then I could start solving
the problem on that so I focused on the stuff that worked
religiously implemented that looked for those patterns those opportunities and
then stuck to it and then eventually solved the problem with these ones over
here that I didn't initially solve and then suddenly that becomes over onto
this path but there are other ones that you may leave in there that you can work
on separately from there so my ability to look at the market reader understand
what it's doing there's a combination of finding all of those little edges but
that I can now put them all together into one ginormous
sort of look at the market you know I can look at each one of those markets I
know how they're likely to trade I can look at a race now and in two or three
hours time I can tell you how much it's going to trade how its likely to move
when the money's gonna arrive and and what it will do to the pricing but only
when I'm on that race will I confirm if that's true but I'm looking for it right
from a couple of hours out and then when I arrive at the market I know what I'm
looking for I can jump on an opportunity when I say it but you can do the same
football tennis any of those individual sports will allow you to do that but
what I'm talking about here really is if you have a generic strategy that you're
deploying generically in the market you're going to get generic results and
those generic results are random you'll end up at breakeven now in fact
you'll make a slight loss because you have to pay Commission on your winning
trades but if you apply random process to a market you're just going to end up
with random results so the best way to trade the market actually is randomly if
you're if you're starting out completely a fresh brand new
never have anything and you don't have an edge trade a market complete your own
you're thinking what are you recommending here because you just told
me I'm not gonna make any money but you will learn you you won't make any money
but you will learn and then the next thing that you do is you look at all of
the results and what you were doing and you'll immediately see that some of them
worked some of them didn't and then you have to start looking at why those ones
didn't work but the easy way to fully understand what's going on with the
market is then run the same strategy again the following week but vary its
lighting just insert a little modification in what you're doing maybe
you start earlier later you do a certain thing you asked for more money you ask
for less you vary the pattern of what you were doing within the market and
then you look at you you vary ever so slightly you get your results from the
prior week you get the results from this week and then you put the two together
and where you see that they don't overlap that contains information that
tells you what that variation did in the market and then you can unto understand
it and pick why that occurred and then the following week vary it again and
eventually what you find is that you end up with a very nice little strategy
because you keep varying it and learning more information about what you doing
and why work so when I returns to Greyhounds this year for the first time
in seven years I sort of guessed roughly where I wanted to be in the market and
what I wanted to do but I'm now on version 37 I think or variation 37 of
where I started so I keep adjusting it in one way and it's like well that
didn't work so I'll adjust it this way and it's like well that worked better so
I'll adjust it this way all that didn't work so I'll adjust it this way
and gradually you sort of swing from one side to the other you vary it in
multiple times you compare all of the individual results that you get and then
that points you down the path of understanding the market a lot a lot
better but I'd probably say you know that's that's the quantitative process
in terms of trying to understand how you're going to make money and where
you're going to find an edge is you have to keep introducing those variations I
mean if you look at it it's this sort of chart Charles Darwin ish type its
Darwinism it's you know were evolving the strategy and every time we evolve
the strategy either dies or it succeeds and then we evolve it further so you
know that was my approach to it was to take it down that particular path
but also don't forget that an edge can come from the core strategy the
implementation of it or the way the market behaves so I've often found that
there are multiple ways of looking for an edge within the market and some of it
is to do with the markets psychology and your psychology as well people
repeatedly make the same mistakes again and again and again again how many times
you've said I'm definitely not ever going to go in play and then you do or
it's like oh well it's only a fiver if I just double my stakes you know all of
these things occur consistently and frequently within the market and also
you know the big steamer that comes down to here and then suddenly stops and
bounces in the other direction you know you wait and wait and wait and wait and
wait and then you jump in and then it's too late
these are all things to do with the way that people think in the way that that
gets transferred into the market so your edge could come from a whole number of
different ways from the individual strategy the execution of the strategy
the timing perhaps but also from a little bit of psychology and obviously
the the ultimate one is to incorporate all of them together into one big thing
which is what I try and do all of the time but so yeah there are many ways to
find a niche in the market and it's important that you do try and find an
edge because if you just do things around him you'll end up with random
results but the great thing is doing things at random doesn't really lose you
that much money either so it's important that you understand the trading around
them and this is where you can use automation on better tential it's great
if you want to develop a trading strategy and execute it perfectly and
leave it that his own means you'll get absolutely perfect results with a little
bit of automation and with things like the servants you can now apply that to
your manual trading as well so you can say this is what I'm going to do this is
what's going to happen I just need to nominate the runner and you can get the
benefit of perfect execution it eliminates all of those little biases
and errors some of which occur off here so yeah loads of ways of doing it we've
sort of designed better angel to allow you to execute as best as you possibly
can but also to develop and very strategies easily as well so not only is
it a great trading tool it'll be a great way of developing any strategy you've
got because even if you're doing something completely different you can
always get better angel to run background gather data gather
information or give you feedback on what's going on within the market and
we've done that specifically so that it allows you to create an edge and that's
why the product can be varied so much can be very highly customized and you've
also got all of these little great tools like the servants and like automation
and Excel and all of these other things will allow you to actively monitor and
develop strategies alongside however you're trading so yeah make sure you use
them all but if you want to find an edge available in a number of different
places but the most key and important thing that you can do is very core
strategy and when you vary that core strategy in it produces different
results and you get a variation on those results that variation contains
information and that's exactly what you're looking for
you
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