Thứ Năm, 3 tháng 8, 2017

Waching daily Aug 4 2017

Time passes by and the company is the crying and loneliness

The day breaks and I'm still awake

Waiting for your calling

I love you so much

You are my peace

What I feel is not illusion

I can't hear your voice,

The silence is cruel

I surrender myself with all my heart

Darling, I beg God

For you to come back to our nest

Baby, come and lay down on my chest

Only to you all my affection

Baby

I beg God

I love you

(My Love)

(My Love)

(on my chest)

I'll always love you

For more infomation >> Only To You - Estéfano Rodrigo - Duration: 1:46.

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Success Reveal - Make Money Work for You - Duration: 3:55.

Success Reveal

Make Money Work for You

For more infomation >> Success Reveal - Make Money Work for You - Duration: 3:55.

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WHAT DID YOU SAY TO ME? - Duration: 0:54.

*SOMETHING IN FRENCH I BELIEVE*

*SOMETHING IN FRENCH I BELIEVE*

*SOMETHING IN FRENCH I BELIEVE*

*SOMETHING IN FRENCH I BELIEVE*

For more infomation >> WHAT DID YOU SAY TO ME? - Duration: 0:54.

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UFC Fighter Gian Villante is Tougher Than You! | People Talking Sports* - Duration: 2:38.

WHEN PEOPLE SAY

VIOLENCE DOESN'T SOLVE ANYTHING DOES THAT EVER

ANNOY YOU BECAUSE YOU'RE REALLY GOOD AT VIOLENCE

I WISH IT DID SOLVE MORE IN LIFE

IT WOULD MEAN THE

TOP 5% OF THE WORLD RIGHT OR 2%

OF THE WORLD CAN BEAT UP MOST PEOPLE I'D BE PRETTY GOOD

THAT WOULD BE COOL

I COULD SOLVE ANY PROBLEM BY PUNCHING THEM LIKE I COULD BUY THIS HOUSE BY BEATING

UP THE OWNER THAT WOULD BE PRETTY COOL YEAH

IT WOULD SIMPLIFY A LOT OF THINGS FOR ME

YEAH FOR YOU IT WOULD BE TROUBLE

FOR ME I'VE REALLY WORKED ON WORDS

I'VE BEEN STABBED THREE TIMES THREE TIMES

YEAH HOW IS THAT THREE DIFFERENCE OCCASIONS

JUST STUPID THINGS WHAT HAPPENED

ONE TIME I GOT A NICE RAZERBLADE ACROSS THE BACK

THAT WAS LIKE 80 STAPLES THAT WAS A GOOD ONE OH MY GOD YEAH

I HAD A BOTTLE STUCK IN MY BACK

I GET MYSELF IN DUMB SITUATIONS WHAT HAPPENED

I'M LIKE OH I COULD FIGHT 10 DUDES

STUPID THINGS BUT THIS IS LIKE WAY BEFORE FIGHTING HOW DID

THE 80 STAPLES HAPPEN THAT WAS

THAT WOULD BE MY ONE FIGHT STORY BUT THAT'S ONE OF YOUR

MANY THIS MONSTER DUDE ON MY TEAM HE'S HUGE

THEY COULDN'T TEST HIM FOR STEROIDS HE WAS HUGE

400 LBS JACKED OUT OF HIS MIND AND HE'S

TALKING TO SOME GIRL OUTSIDE THE BAR AND I WALK OVER

AND I'VE JUST FINISHED WALKING A GIRL TO HER CAR

SO I WALK AROUND THE BAR AND I'M BY MYSELF AND I SEE

HIM SURROUNDED BY THESE THREE DUDES AND THEY'RE

TALKING AND THEY'RE GETTING LOUD WITH HIM AND I WALK OVER LIKE

WHOA NOTHING'S GONNA HAPPEN HERE YOU GUYS DON'T WORRY ABOUT IT

AND I'M LIKE GO BACK INSIDE AND THEY PUSHED ME

SO I PUT THE ONE DUDE IN A SLEEPER HOLD

AND I'M LIKE ALRIGHT ARE YOU GONNA CHILL OUT

OR AM I GOING TO BEAT UP YOU & YOUR FRIENDS AND HE'S LIKE NO

GOING NUTS OR WHATEVER SO I PUT HIM TO SLEEP AND I'M WAITING

FOR HIM TO GO TO SLEEP BEFORE

I CAN FIGHT THE OTHER TWO DUDES THAT ARE ON MY BACK I FEEL LIKE

THEY SCRATCHED ME OR SOMETHING

AND I TURN AROUND AND THE OTHER DUDES ARE RUNNING AND I'M LIKE I GUESS

I'M PRETTY TOUGH THE OTHER GUYS ARE RUNNING

THEY LEFT THEIR FRIEND HERE LIKE DEAD

SO I THINKI'M GOOD & THEY'RE RUNNING DOWN

THE BLOCK AND MY BUDDY'S LIKE AH THANK YOU SO MUCH AND HE PATS

ME ON THE BACK AND HE'S LIKE AH YOUR SHIRT SPLIT AND HE LOOKS AND I'M LIKE FILLETED

I HAD A NICE SCRATCH BUT YOU CAN'T REALLY FEEL A RAZERBLADE IT'S SO SHARP

THE BEST PART IS THE DOCTOR STAPLED ME UP

TWO YEARS LATER I GOT STABBED IN THE SHOULDER WITH A BOTTLE

AND HE'S LIKE ARE YOU KIDDING ME I DID THIS ON YOUR BACK RIGHT

AND HE'S LIKE THERE'S SOMETHING WRONG WITH YOU

YEAH THAT WAS A PRETTY FUN ONE

I DON'T DO THAT STUFF NO MORE

For more infomation >> UFC Fighter Gian Villante is Tougher Than You! | People Talking Sports* - Duration: 2:38.

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Options vs. Stocks: Risk-Reward Analysis - Duration: 9:25.

Okay, Professor Geof, just thought

I'd give you a real quick rundown on how to use

this spreadsheet, it is very simple,

but there are a lot of scary-looking formulas

and formatting and what-have-you.

But you can ignore 90% of this,

I'm just gonna show you the important bits.

Section One is just where I keep notes

on whether I like an investment or not

and you can ignore that obviously.

Section Two is where most of the action will take place,

and I'll just quickly run through this.

I have all this filled in with the SNAP info,

for now use I've used BHP as a stock

that should hopefully grab your attention.

This is probably gonna show "n/a"

if you don't have the same brokerage software

that I use, but you can ignore it.

This is all hard-coded.

The two areas you want to focus on here,

the maximum loss you are willing to take

on the options, I've used $5,000,

if you're willing to lose $10,000 or more,

just punch that in here, in cell D20.

Capital at risk is only relevant to

the size of your stock investment,

and it determines many shares you will buy (NOT short, I mispoke).

Sorry, in this example, it's all gonna be buying BHP.

Didn't want to send a negative message about your employer,

so it's all buying and calls instead of shorting and puts.

The principles for using this spreadsheet are the same.

So just again, if you get a quick comparison

of whether you should buy or use calls

just punch in those two numbers.

These numbers will be fixed although feel free to change

any of these highlighted or shaded areas.

The other things you might want to consider

are when you use a call spread or not,

you can just turn that to "no" if you don't.

And the spread on that, call spread.

Not sure what the strike price is gonna be yet

on the SNAP puts, but you can use varying

increments here in cell I19, and then the data

will automatically update for how

big a spread you wanna try.

And then this will probably all be fixed

but again, you can change it, nothing bad will happen.

The other thing you may wanna change,

what I've loaded is different expiration dates,

so you can change how far out you wanna go.

I've only put in two examples here of the BHP,

long dated calls, January 2018 and January 2019.

The model will update that.

And then the last thing you many wanna change,

I usually leave this on mid,

particularly for someone like BHP that has

good trader coverage, you get good liquidity,

and the mid is probably close to what you'll pay,

but for other companies like SNAP,

it may be that the mid-price doesn't make any sense,

you may wanna use the last.

I know some guys look at the bid or the ask,

'cause they're pretty confident they can

get whatever price they push for.

But for our purposes, either the mid or the last,

I'm just gonna leave it on the mid.

So they're the main changes, just to recap,

are gonna be how much you're willing to lose,

the amount of stock that you'd be willing to buy,

and I think you can ignore all of this,

and then just whether you wanna do a call spread or not.

And the expiration.

So that's the section.

I'm gonna leave that open, 'cause that's sort

of the main thing that you'll wanna change.

Section Three, summarizes what's in Sections Four and Five,

so I'll just quickly show you,

not that you need to worry about it,

Section Four just has all the different pricing

alternatives for the January 2018 call expiration.

And like I said, that'll be pre-loaded

with the SNAP data, and then Section Five

is for the longer dated expiration, which is

January 2019, and it puts everything you need

for the spreads or just, if you go into a call spread,

you can just buy the call, and it does that as well.

So Sections Four and Five - unless the pricing changes or updated -

you probably won't need to look at that.

Like I said, Section Three just summarizes

based on what you've chosen in Section Two,

it just summarizes the scenarios,

and has a lot of data about time value.

When I use long-dated options, I'm always

trying to get a lot of residual time values,

so if I sell the options a year from now,

they've still got a lot of time value

left in the premiums.

But you can probably ignore that for now.

Okay, so you don't need to do anything,

in Section Three you can look at it and see which scenario

you've chosen, I'll just change this

back to the shorter expiration (January 2018),

and you'll see this all updates.

So Section Six is where all the fun happens,

and I know it looks God-awful, but it really

is not, you can ignore most of it.

The only things you need to change here,

once you've set up Section Two,

the only things you need to change

are the stock price changes you want to consider

for deciding whether options or stock

are the best way to go.

So I've started here with a negative 10% stock price change in E103,

and positive 25% return in E104,

and what the model does is it, a couple of things,

it highlights those stock price movement levels for you,

in yellow and green, and just so you can see,

if you change this to say I wanna look

at the 50% stock price change for BHP and 100%,

it automatically moves these lines for you.

So you can go to the lines and say what's the

alternative I feel most comfortable with.

The other thing... and that's the main thing

you'll need to use...

The other thing that it does is,

on the side it has asterisks indicating

where the current stock price is roughly.

(there's some rounding error going on there)

but just so you can quickly focus your eye,

and it does that on both sides.

Not particularly relevant, unless you wanna know

your returns if the stock does nothing,

but what is relevant is up here in, what's that,

rows 102 and 104, these asterisks actually

move depending on what is the best risk/reward

for the stock price movements you've plugged in.

So you plug in these numbers, and the

colored lines move down to show you

what the various alternatives would yield,

and then this little asterisk thingy

will move along to say, "all right,

your best alternative is buying the stock,

or buying this call spread"

And actually it's gonna be tough to find (laughs),

it looks like based on the current pricing for BHP,

you're almost always better doing a call spread.

Which does happen, just a bit surprising

given how low the VIX index is.

But yeah, anyway.

So it automatically adjusts, it says,

all right, if you expect the stock price

was going to decline 10%, then your best alternative

is to use this call spread.. which I don't think

this pricing is right, I think the option pricing

is not realistic, they're not gonna let you

make $5,000, but you know, this is a theoretical exercise,

so let's not worry about it.

And then it says if the price goes to your

other stock price target of a 50% gain,

then your best alternative is this

$47.50 / $52.50 call spread.

And you can see that it gives you a risk/reward

of 9.6 times, and that's reflected here

with the green highlighting.

So like I said, just play around

with these two numbers here.

Do whatever you think, if you think BHP's stock price is

gonna go up 200%, it will tell you that

it's still the best alternative and you

go down here and it'll show you what

kind of returns you would have made

if the stock price does go up that much.

you can see, you would have made $48,000,

using calls and $20,000 using stock.

Surprisingly, quite often I find stocks

are a much better alternative than using calls,

but I think part of that is because we're

doing call spreads rather than straight calls.

But anyway.

That's the basic mechanism, just to recap,

play around with the expected stock price change

and follow the asterisks, and the shaded lines.

And the other thing you may need to change,

if you want, is the call expiration,

and whether you use calls spreads at all,

and maybe you just wanna use a call

with no selling of the higher expiration call,

I'm sorry, selling of the higher strike call.

And how much you are willing to lose,

and that should be all you have to do.

So a lot of ugliness, but it is

pretty simple to use, I hope.

If not, let me know, and I'll give you

a phone call and talk through it.

All right, hope that was helpful.

For more infomation >> Options vs. Stocks: Risk-Reward Analysis - Duration: 9:25.

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