so I picked up a magazine from a popular newspaper many years ago and on it it
said know your football and I'll give you ten thousand pound and I thought
well I know football really well I love doing all of the stats on it so I'm
going to have a a crack at getting that ten thousand pound and the following
video is the story of how that led me to start looking at and predicting where
teams were going to be finished in the league
please like and comment on the video below that will allow me to produce
better quality videos and more of them in the future so quite a few years ago
there was an article in a magazine and it said know your football then I'll
give you ten thousand pound and I thought well I know my football I've
been doing this analysis for a number of years I fancy ten thousand pounds and
what you know I didn't win but I was able to prove a point because the main
point of the article were around the difficulty of getting the prediction of
where a team's gonna finish in the league absolutely right and the theory
was that it was impossible it's very very hard to be able to do and in fact
it says in here which is why I'm looking very closely it says it's one in twenty
factorial which was to six Tilian 432 quintillion 902 quadrillion eight
trillion 161 so a big number basically but as you all know for example at
Cheltenham earlier this year I managed to win on every single race at children
and those were very similar odds and you know ridiculously stupendous odds and of
course they did when you look at a problem it depends how you approach him
so this was being approached from a purely mathematical perspective and from
that perspective it was almost impossible you could arrange teams in
you know one two three four five and at the beginning of the season and get it
right now the reality is it is actually really hard to be able to do that and
you always get little anomalies appearing like Leicester and not so long
ago which appeared to be about a 1 in 40 year anomaly but generally there is a
method and process in which you can actually detect which teams are likely
to finish near the top and which teams are likely to finish near the bottom but
for me it was sort of my stomach's tense with discovery
because I approached it in the same way that probably a mathematician would have
approached it in that I tried to work through the entire fixture list and look
to see where teams were likely to finish based upon how they were going to
perform and who they were playing and what the odds of winning an individual
game were however that was a total mistake because the correlation could be
described much easier another way and I was quite keen to understand you know
how to predict where a team was going to be you know purely for the fun of it but
also you know being a football supporter you want to know what chance your team
has got it being relegated or promoted and so on and so forth but the
correlation came around by accident because I wasted ages trying to come up
with complex models to actually figure out how this was going to work and what
was gonna happen and when and I was actually browsing through financial
reports Football Club so and I just suddenly thought well actually you know
why don't I have a look and see if I can dig something out of those reports
because teams that have lots of money you would sort of hypothesize would
probably do better than teams with no money and a lot of football teams are
skirting on the edge of bankruptcy it seems most of the time and obviously
they won't be able to buy in new players and so on so I was primarily looking at
that was looking at whether a team that had huge amounts of debt and other
factors like that we're going to end up being relegated so I'm you know yeah if
you wade through all of the reports and accounts minute with your teams you can
dig out all sorts of information and in fact now that is a report that gets
produced once a year anyhow which solves a little bit of work but nonetheless all
of those details of the financials of football clubs are freely available and
there's lots of research done on that and it was that that allowed me to
actually figure out where teams are likely to finish in league because you
look at wages within the league and they've absolutely skyrocketed I'll put
up a graph for you of how the Premier League wages have risen over time
especially in comparison to lower tier teams but I did see an article in a
newspaper right and I captured I snipped part of that article to show you a
comparison of how things have changed because it's really since the advent of
the Premier and the money that goes into the Premier
League that wages have absolutely skyrocketed so the newspaper article
which I'll I'll bring up on the screen somewhere here or somewhere basically
said that in nineteen eighty six Manchester United spent two-and-a-half
million on wages and if you wined Ford's to twenty sixteen their wage bill was
two hundred and ten million so it's gone up pretty much a hundredfold for
comparison they looked at Shrewsbury and they spent two hundred fifty thousand on
their wage bill back in nineteen eighty six and you wind forward to 2016 and
that was two and a half million so that had gone up tenfold but you know when
you take into account inflation and all those other things that wasn't a massive
increase but of course man United had absolutely skyrocketed so the the
general thing that you get is that obviously if you spend a more are able
to spend more money on bigger wages then you tend to attract the bigger players
and they tend to stay around for longer and that tends to lead to an hour
performance so when I was browsing all of this data that's when that dropped
into my head and I was thinking well hold on a second here you know there
must be a correlation because you could definitely see one on the other side so
teams that were financially struggling and necessarily couldn't bring in the
players couldn't fund a development and all of those other things and would
eventually drop out of the league and you know you saw this cycle of teams
generally falling away when they got into financial trouble so I just went
back and back dated so I'm just going to look for it here but I'll bring it up on
the screen for you in a second I went in back dated all of the wages through all
the information sources I could get in the final league position and you come
up with a chart like this and basically the blue bits at the top indicate that a
team has spent a lot of money on wages and the column next to it indicates
where they finished so necessarily you can see a lot of blue at the top and log
of red of the bottom otherwise you would if the correlation was negative you
would see blue at the bottom on one side and and red to indicate where they
finished in the league but you can see that generally that is performing
exactly the way that you'd expect there's a positive correlation between
how actually spent on players their wages and where you finish
up on the leave and that's been sad really because when I was growing up
everything seemed a lot more level you know you always felt your team was in
with a chance but when I watch my team and I'm sure the same happens to a lot
of other people out there you feel that you haven't got a hope in hell against
this team that have just spent half a billion on players or you know look at
Neymar and PSG they've spent quarter of a billion practically on one player
which is absolute madness that's more than the you know it's just crazy anyhow
but you know you can see that there's a rough correlation they're going
backwards and generally that holds firm going forwards so if you look at the
individual weights bill I'll bring up a graph of the wage bill that has occurred
over time now and you can see how this has affect the outcome of the league so
if we look for example at Manchester City who are favourites to win the
league this year what you will find is that in the early 2000s or the early
turn of the millennium you will see that their wage bill was no different to most
other people and they were just an average team but you can see around 2007
2008 they started to spend massively and that has been rewarded with a number of
trophies including the Premier League title now you can see that if you go to
the right-hand side of the graph in 2016-17 they had the biggest wage bill
of the law so that is basically saying that they've got the best chance of
winning the league and if you look at the odds that seems to confirm that
particular fact but it's also interesting to look at it from a
perspective of any of those other clubs as well so for example Man United you
can see have been spending a lot of money for a lot of time but they were
outspent by Chelsea for a period of time so the fact that they were less dominant
when Chelsea came along you know that explains that as well but you can also
see that you know managers that are immortal in terms of what they've
managed to achieve very often just spent a lot of money and that was how they did
it but not always because you know some managers don't spend as much as other
clubs and are able to outperform so for example if you look on the chart and you
look at Spurs you could Tottenham you can see that they're spending way below
what most of the other clubs are so they're performing miles
above what they should be and if you look for example at Liverpool I know
Liverpool fans are frustrated through not having won anything for a very long
period of time well won the league rather because they have one other
things you can see why that reason exists because for a while they were
pretty much on par with a lot of the other teams but then over time you can
see that they've just fallen further and further behind the biggest spending
clubs so performance is relative if you don't spend as much as some of these
other big clubs then you're going to fall behind
which is exactly what Liverpool have done however by appointing a good
manager then you can outperform and relative to your position within the
league so it's very interesting to see you'll also see on here I've plotted
Aston Villa who are no longer in the Premier League but you can see that
their graph goes along pretty much flat lines and actually goes into decline so
relatively speaking according to how much money they're spending they're
getting worse in terms of their position within the league and they will of
course eventually relegated which is the way the spotting clubs that carry large
amounts of debt or can't fund interest payments or having to not spend in order
to achieve something are likely to underperform over the long term and
that's you know an unfortunate fact of things so yeah I'll bring up another
graph here if you look at relative wage Bills of clubs this gives you a much
better understanding of what percentage share each individual club has of the
spend within the league and that gives you a good indication as to where clubs
sit within that particular mix so you can see Arsenal are below the top three
so that would predict they would finish fourth haha but you can see Liverpool
would finish fifth and Spurs should be finishing much lower now because they're
playing at Wembley this year and for their home matches be interesting to see
what impact that has but if they don't perform as well as previous and they
haven't spent during the summer so they wage bill relatively speaking is in
decline I would expect an under performance this year so it'd be
interesting to see how that plays out but generally you will find that teams
that spend a lot of money end up winning the league or getting somewhere near the
top teams that can't spend money or don't have the money will end up
somewhere near the bottom but the interesting thing to note is just
outside of that top tier you tend to get a band of under performers so if you
look at teams that are to finish six to sort of ten now you
tends to find that there's a team within that mix that would generally
underperform sometimes it could be structural so for example Newcastle
spent a lot of money for a lot of years and a lot of decent players but never
ever achieved anything and likewise at the bottom of the league if you look
above those bottom three teams or the newly promoted teams or the teams that
have no money there's a little band of out performance there so teams in that
little area you get one team out of that little mix that will tend to perform
much much better than you would typically expect but outside of those
structural inconsistencies yeah I have no idea why that is I can't explain that
moment but I can tell that that is the situation that is prevails over many
years have done have analyzed the data of about 25 years outside of those
inconsistencies then generally the team that spends the most amount of money
will win the league and the team that spends the least will end up being
relegated so as we go into the new season bear that in mind don't get too
upset if your team can't perform well relative to others it very often comes
down to money and hopefully without your team we'll have a decent season but
you'll also be able to have realistic expectations as to what they're likely
to achieve so anyway hope that was useful for you and that is how you
predict where your team is likely to finish in the league
you
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