so when you're trading tennis on Betfair is there a right and wrong way of
trading tennis properly well of course there is there is a correct way of
trading in it goes hand-in-hand with another video that I produced and if
you're interested in learning how you should be approaching your trading of
tennis then watch the rest of this video if you're interested in learning to
trade on Betfair then visit the BET angel' academy where you have detailed
structured Betfair trading courses or why not visit our website where you can
download a free trial of BET angel professional but also visit the forum
where you can get detailed images examples and downloadable files and
don't forget to subscribe to our youtube channel and click on the bell icon if
you want notification of new videos as they're released so is there a right and
wrong way to try tennis yes there is if you want to understand the theory behind
this then you need to look at the video that was the secret to profitable
betting and trading because that gives you the basis on which you would do what
I'm about to do here and the way that I'm about to analyze it but basically
when you look at any market you have to frame an opportunity within the market
and tennis is no different now the advantage that you have with tennis is
that its structured you basically will find that as you go through the match
you hit certain points and those points are discounted into the chance of the
player going on to win the match so if you look at pulse racing pre off for
example it's just driven by opinion whether the horses looks good or doesn't
look good and various other factors is it raining
whatever that sort of is discounted in the price so there's no sort of
structure though it's a bit harder to understand specifically what the price
should be however on tennis it's pretty simple
players start at a certain price and then if they win the match it's 101 and
it's a graduation a step process between that and the end of the match if you
want to understand how that works then fire up tennis trader and it's one of
the most complicated things that we've ever done but this explains the
structure of a match very well now the thing to bear in mind is that as the
match progresses this will shift and change subtly
pending upon what's going on within the match itself so if we look for example
at the set matrix this gives you a good idea of the way that a match could
progress this assumes that de Baca is the server within this match and these
are all the possible paths at the end of each game that the set could take you
can see there's quite a large variety of them but also underneath you see all of
the odds for de Baca and and Hassan or Hassan I don't know how you pronounce
that could be either of those will say his opponent that's probably the best
way to summarize it but you can basically see if de Baca is serving
first in its level then he's going to be at 2:09 or there abouts and if you see
if that remains the same all the way up to the end you can see that that's going
to remain pretty much the same because obviously their level however if he wins
a game you can see that his odds shortened and if he loses a game then
that changes as well but you can basically see the path that the odds
would take so when you look at this first set in this match depending upon
what the scores are going to be this is very likely how these odds will play out
now there could be some individual variation in a game because say you know
he stretches for shot and then puts his hand down and rubs his hamstring then
people will start discounting that and you know say one player has a lot of
momentum and the other players think you know I'm just giving up on this set then
that's something you can't see in these stats before the match has started it's
just impossible so the variation to these odds will give you a clue as to
where the momentum is shifting within the match and whether you think there's
a potential value within there but let's understand how you would really get to
grips with all of this so if you want to mess around on tennis trader you would
obviously set it up correctly I'm not going to go through the setup process
here because they'll just extend the length of the video
but once you've set up the type of match who's serving first and you've
calibrated that then you can mess around with all different score lines if you
want if you want to mess around and figure out what's going to happen when
and how that's going to happen but let's look at that set matrix again but
illustrate a few points within here so what we're saying in this match is
Dibakar are serving first and it's love all so let's look at the first two paths
that we could take through this individual set so of course he could go
on to win this particular game in which case we would follow that path or he
could get broken in which case we would follow that path and the concept here
really if you look at these starting odds of 209 is if he wins the game you
will gain nine ticks and if he loses the game you can see that we lose
considerably more so the concept here is that you know you're going to gain 50
odds ticks if he gets broken but you'll only gain nine if he doesn't get broken
so you can see that that's a sort of five to one ratio so if if you're
thinking about this logically you would say if we're looking at sort of one in
five chance what you're sort of saying here is if you do one over five that's
going to work out that's 20% you're going to say you know will you get
broken more than 20% of the time is there a situation in this match that
leads me to believe that he will get broken 20% of the time or basically from
a trading perspective can I predict a break of surf better than one in five
times so that's the way that you would necessarily look at an opportunity of a
break in that first game however you know within tennis you're going to have
a variety of setups so what you'll probably find is if you cast your eye
later on in the match here so you know say it's for all and we're going in to
that fifth into that ninth game rather then if you think about what's going on
in the back his head at this particular moment in time he's going to be thinking
well if I hold this game then I can put pressure on my opponent's serve but his
opponent will be thinking well if I can put pressure on his serve I could
actually end up serving for this particular set I could end up winning
this set 6-4 and if it's for all within the match then basically I'm going to
highlight this by drawing a nice little pattern around it
and you can see that this is a much more critical game than the nil nil that we
saw at the start of the match so you can see getting a break of serve at the
start of the match is obviously important because he can build on that
but also there's more opportunity for the player to come back so the path that
they could follow in this particular match could sort of go like this it sort
of could go somewhere like that and then they end up at 4:00 or so when you look
at that you can immediately see that at the beginning of the match there's an
opportunity to break but there could be a break back but as we approach the
business end of the set a break there will be much more significant so you can
see it goes from 208 let me just erase some of this so that it's a little bit
clearer for you so you can see we go from odds of 208 here to 195 so the
opportunity here is for an 8 + 5 a 13 tick profit in this direction however if
he does get broken then you can see here that it goes to 306 so if you lay with
100 pounds you could trade out for a hundred pound
profit on the trade at this particular point in time so the point I'm trying to
make here is okay we looked at that one-in-five scenario a second ago but if
you look up here that one-in-five scenario was suddenly completely
different we're talking in effect here a thirteen over a ninety eight chance
basically so I'm gonna have to get my calculator out to do this one
and some of you will be able to do this in your head but basically you're
looking here at a warm in 7.5 occurrence so when it's four all in the first set
can you get a break of serve or do you feel that there's a situation that's
leading up to break observe that you can predict more than one in seven and a
half matches because if you can your trade is on and you should be able to
profit from this particular scenario so so this is the way that you would
typically set up a trade you know this is what I would define is framing a
trade you're basically saying you know depending upon where we are within this
match and depending upon the current score what happens next and how does
that influence my opportunity of getting a positive trade out of this particular
market and that will vary quite dramatically depending upon where you
are in the set but also think about it it will vary dramatically depending on
the path that is followed in the incentive to get a particular result so
if the player wins the first game breaks in the second then wins the next game
he's going to be at three love so you can see if we look at that you can see
just with one break he'll be priced at 162 so the best way to understand what
we're looking at here in terms of the layout within tennis trader is
effectively with backer serving first this line here is him
holding his serve this line here is a break of serve and this line here would
be a breakup so can you see what if what effective it happens in tennis is you
jump from one state to the other so this would be a breakup this would be with
surf that would be a break down and you can see that the path would sort of
follow like that now I'm looking at it really simplistically but that's simply
because I haven't got hours to spend with you looking at the detail of how
you would actively trade this market but in essence that's sort of what you're
trying to do you're looking at the opportunities within the match you're
seeing how that could play out and that presents the trading
opportunity for you so say by some miracle he was five one up and then he
tried a couple of little shots that didn't quite work out it wouldn't really
affect him to start with and then you can see that necessarily that wouldn't
affect him if he went on to lose a couple of games but then look at the
difference between that and losing a few games suddenly you've got a dramatic
shift in odds so again you can sort of do that calculation there and you can
sort of say you know if if we're looking to do something at five one up how many
times do we have to get it you know two five four and what scenario would lead
up to that so the way that you should be thinking in tennis is not that this
could occur because these are all theoretical probables that could follow
a number of different paths so I mean you know this this one would follow this
sort of path here which is probably a little less likely but what you're
saying is you know if the score is 5-1 in this set and you know we think that
we're going to possibly get out at this point here look at the difference
between the two and say is there a reason for that to happen it do we see
some evidence of that happening is there a scenario that will lead to that
happening maybe is getting a bit smart and is taking a few dodgy shots you know
just to sort of show off because these miles in front he's thinking well it's
not really an issue because even if I lose the next game I'm still gonna
finish it off and then he loses next on thinks well that's not a problem because
I'm serving for this and then suddenly the break occurs you're trying to
position yourself ahead of that it's not about the fact that this scenario this
future exists its anticipating that that is about to happen but then looking at
the maths of it and saying well I think I can do that I think this is a
reasonable set of odds so you can very often if you dig deep enough I have done
this before I have highlighted scenarios I'm saying well you know the downside on
this particular trade is quite small actually that's not small is it the
downside on this trade is quite small but the upside is potentially huge if
you think that this is worthwhile and that's the essence of trading you're
looking for scenarios where the potential downside is minimal so you
know you've got - downside here quite small but the
opportunity for some upside as long as you've got some reason to do that
because potentially large but even then you know if you settle into a pattern of
working very hard on these sort of scenarios where you're looking at
scenarios that are fixed then you will get better and better at spotting when
those opportunities are likely to come around so it's much better than watching
a match seeing the match sort of meander all over the place and then trying to
make a decision on what's going to happen next it's better to look for a
particular setup say for two up in the first cent and then actually take a
position based upon that and practice the setups that allow you to execute a
strategy around a particular score and of course you can get Bettinger to hunt
for scores for you if the live score feed is provided by their fare for that
particular tournament and then it would just flag to you when that scenario is
presented then you switch to that match or maybe a watching that already or
something coming up to that score and you can make a decision on it at that
particular point in time now the interesting thing as well is if we have
a little bit of a closer look at this say we're going to go for if it's three
all in a match and we're looking for a break of serve at that particular point
in time to grab this big move in the market here like it pretty much an
eighty tick move the thing to bear in mind is that actually if we look at bet
Angel you can actually switch to the game matrix and what the game matrix
will do is present you with what will happen on that particular scenario so if
we say three games all and we go to the game matrix we were basically saying
that we were looking at a move from 208 to 287 but if we actually look at the
game matrix where does that sort of 287 occur well it occurs at the end of the
game when it's in this into backers favour but maybe if you set your sights
a little bit lower you can see here you can get a thirty four tick move or
perhaps you know a slightly bigger one given a range of other scenarios so the
interesting thing about looking at it this way is you can actually position
at your closing trade in the market at a price that is a little bit more
conducive to getting filled so say we set our sights at some around 230 years
you can see a range of scenarios here that will allow you to identify points
at which 230 would occur so you know maybe at fifteen thirty with a double
fault with a single fault rather a second serve is the word I'm looking for
it would touch about two thirty so you can sort of draw an arc of opportunity
here which is sort of basically saying every scenario within here would give me
what I need and therefore when you look at it from that perspective you can sort
of say well okay you know we could go for the break of serve that could occur
within the set but why do we just go for a mini break why don't we go and you can
see the scenario here is we're basically saying if were two points up we're more
or less saying here if were a point up and basically serving to save the game
would also occur so we've got a number of different scenarios here or indeed we
have here 15 30 a point down but maybe on second serve would generate the
potential payoff for us so rather than just looking at one particular scenario
here we could actually generate a different type of opportunity by
basically looking at the opportunity with inside to the game and then perhaps
positioning our closing trade opening the trade at beginning of there the game
in closing the trade by putting an order in based upon where we think the price
is going to reach and that's importance too as well because if you try and trade
during a game you're obviously going to get a bit of a problem here because
you've got people on court that are going to be able to see the point before
you so you would only ever enter these positions at the end of a game or if you
know where the odds are likely to be given a certain score in the next game
when they're basically swapping sides sitting down or getting ready to serve
then that's the opportunity to get into the market without having to give away
any margin to anybody they can see something that you can't
but yeah when you're looking at trading any particular market what you're
actually looking at really is the potential payoff you're saying if this
happens what happens from here and what will the odds be and therefore when
should I get in or out of a particular position within the market what's the
potential payoff what's my chance of executing that trade profitably and that
is how you should be trading tennis
you
For more infomation >> Did DxOMark Selfie Report got it all Wrong! Camera Test - Duration: 5:43. 
For more infomation >> ❤️Chehra mera tha | nigahen uski | Aiza khan | New Whatsapp Status - Duration: 0:31. 
Không có nhận xét nào:
Đăng nhận xét